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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|