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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.