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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a far greater change with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in series and a history of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that train a-coming, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.